Nov 12, 2017
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Today's episode comes about because of an email I got this week. Let me read it for you. It goes, "I'm very interested in joining your website, but I have some concerns you may be able to help with. I have friends who used to trade credit spread options, but had some very bad losses due to a black swan event a couple of years ago. If you advise us to place a trade, risking say 70 percent of account, and an event happens over the weekend, the market could gap and we lose 70 percent almost overnight. This is the only thing that stops me from signing up and learning how to trade options. Am I missing something here? Thanks. John".
For those of you who've never heard of it, and I'm surprised if you have never heard of it because it's very common nowadays to say that, throw this word around. "The black swan". Basically what it is, it's an unpredictable event. Something that we can't account for. It could be man made. It could be natural. These are things that are not taken into event normally because they are so out of the realm of possibility that you wouldn't even think about it. Or at least that's what the guy says who came up with this theory.
Now notice, it is still a theory. It hasn't been scientifically proven or anything like that. But it is something we should be aware of, and maybe even take into consideration while we're trading. A good example of a black swan event is 9/11, the attack on the trade towers, and all the other attacks that happened with the planes. Now nobody had ever, well they did kind of, they had some kind of inkling that something like that could happen. But for the general population, nobody ever considered that terrorists would take over airplanes and drive them into buildings. Never considered it.
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